"NRN BOUND OF SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SHARPLY DELINEATED
BY POSITION OF WARM FRONT -- E OF DEVELOPING SFC CYCLONE
...LIKELY ACROSS SOME PART OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA
PENINSULA. WARM SECTOR SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S AND
INSOLATION MAY RAISE MLCAPES INTO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE."
The model output seems to match up with SPC’s conclusions. I/we may head toward Tappahannock tomorrow to be in place by 1:00 pm or so. Hopefully this warm front and associated triple point will be within reach of there. Will we see our first severe weather of the year? Perhaps…