Haven’t yet looked at the models myself, but the Sterling forecast discussion and the long range SPC convective outlook seem to point at Wednesday 3/19 as a repeat of several earlier systems this year: our area in the warm sector with little instability (due to cloud cover), but a strong low level jet and forcing along the cold front which could lead to shear, low-topped convection, and possible tornadoes. I’ll check out the models later today and keep an eye on the forecast the next couple of days; I’d love to get in a couple of productive chases before heading out to the Plains the third week in April. Speaking of which, I’d really like to see the current SPC Day 1/2/3 convective outlook mirrored when I’m out west. We could start the chase in the TX/OK panhandles and follow the system eastward, winding up in eastern TX/western AR. Keeping my fingers crossed…

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