I have been haunting the long range models all weekend and have found little to cheer about regarding chasing opportunities here in northern Virginia. The GFS shows a cold frontal passage next Saturday afternoon, but the European (ECMWF) predicts this same frontal passage on Sunday morning. Such model divergence lends little confidence in long range forecasts, but today’s local Sterling WFO forecast discussion at least hinted at the possibility of issuing a thunderstorm forecast for next weekend. Either way I’m jealous of the chasers in the Plains given tomorrow’s SPC forecast of a Moderate Risk as the forums buzz with target locations and chaser groupings. I’ll be watching for chaser reports tomorrow evening as I keep my fingers crossed that the severe weather out that way will be in unpopulated areas.

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