The models seem to be forecasting Monday to be a repeat of Friday, with a front plowing through the I-95 corridor early in the day and a chance for severe weather east of the interstate during the early afternoon. The top graphic shows the surface dewpoint and lifted index (a measure of instability at ~20,000 feet up) at 18Z (2:00 pm EDT). The negative LI values plus the moist air forecast east of the interstate supports the SPC’s forecast for a chance at severe weather as shown in the bottom graphic. We’ll have to keep an eye on the model updates, but it does look good…assuming I can manage to get away from the desk early enough Monday afternoon.

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