The models seem to indicate that a cold front that was supposed to steam through here on Saturday has slowed and will likely pass through during the night. The above depiction shows a possibility of some precipitation entering the Shenandoah Valley by 8 pm Saturday and some decent CAPE (instability) and helicity (rotation potential) are also forecast for that time, meaning some storms could fire before dark. Additionally the Storm Prediction Center Day 3 convective outlook has that area under a small (5%) chance of severe weather for Saturday. Depending on how things look in the short-range models on Saturday – as well as how much the radar lights up – I may head up toward Winchester late that afternoon to catch some storms in the open farm country west of the Blue Ridge. I’m ready for some more action!

Advertisements