The long range GFS model is showing a definite cold air damming signature next weekend for the Mid-Atlantic. Even though a potent surface low is forecast to approach from the west the above graphic for 8 pm Saturday evening shows a stubborn cold pocket holding on over Virginia, which would quash any convection that would be associated with a warm front that could otherwise lift northward. Given that the European model tends to agree with this setup the low looks like it will slide by south of us, keeping all the warm juicy convective conditions further down the coast. Model forecasts this far out can certainly change, but right now my hopes for a Saturday chase are dimmed significantly.

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