The Day 1 convective outlook from the SPC has us under a Slight risk, with a 5% chance of tornadoes here in our area (a significant value for the Mid-Atlantic). The shear (both directional and speed) and CAPE values combine to provide a great-looking storm chase day for our area, especially with a warm front lurking just to our north. This latter factor provides two key ingredients for severe weather: it puts us in the warm sector of the approaching low pressure system and it keeps a shear boundary – which can cause an average thunderstorm to go severe – nearby. That, plus an upper level impulse and some sunshine makes me very optimistic for a severe weather event in Northern Virginia…even tho’ I probably won’t be able to chase today.

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