The models are showing the approaching cold front slowing down, moving the severe weather threat to later Sunday into Monday afternoon. The local models from Sterling WFO show a zero chance of thunderstorms this afternoon anywhere in Northern VA, so – altho’ I’ll be checking radar – it looks like today is a no-go for chasing and I’m not available for chasing tomorrow or (probably) Monday. The good news for chasers is that the pattern seems to be heating up overall, with today’s SPC convective outlook showing a Moderate Risk area for the second day in a row (see above). The Hokie Stormchase team is gearing up for its annual trip to Tornado Alley, so their chances of seeing some good storms are improving.
EDIT: 11:40 a.m. SPC has posted a High Risk for portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Watch out for more long track severe tornadoes in these areas!