The early June surge of storminess looks to continue both today and tomorrow, with most of the models for today calling for our area to be at the southern end of a “lee trough” which should fire off convection near I-95 between 3: 00 and 4:00 pm. With a bit of speed shear evident in the models and some low-level boundaries we could see some storm rotation this afternoon. We are also at the southern edge of the SPC’s Day 1 Slight Risk for severe weather, so I’ll be chasing locally today.
As for tomorrow afternoon a cold front is forecast to plow through here and provide us with a couple days relief from the heat and humidity. That front will also trigger some storms – some severe – so I’ll have my chase gear ready tomorrow as well.
Another note: the second edition of this year’s Hokie Stormchasers is off and running, placing themselves today in the middle of the SPC’s Moderate Risk for the upper Midwest. Go Hokies!
UPDATE 3:20 pm:
Cells firing over Culpeper county, heading generally in this direction. I’m keeping an eye on them to see if / where I might intercept them.