This graphic depicts a Mesoscale Discussion issued by the Storm Prediction Center that indicates conditions may result in the issuance of a severe weather watch early this afternoon. This, despite the forecast models that predict our area will be high and dry until sometime after dark. A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is plowing its way across the mountains of West Virginia and appears to have enough steam left over – thanks to an upper level shortwave trough – to fire off storms east of the Blue Ridge. Hence a need to keep an eye on the sky and on local radars to avoid the surprise that Fredericksburg received last evening when a storm blew through and disrupted a downtown concert. If this pans out and if I have the chance I will be out chasing this afternoon even tho’ I didn’t expect today to provide the storm potential.
UPDATE 4:15 pm: Bottom line is that the storms fizzled out. Oh well.