This graphic depicts a Mesoscale Discussion issued by the Storm Prediction Center that indicates conditions may result in the issuance of a severe weather watch early this afternoon.  This, despite the forecast models that predict our area will be high and dry until sometime after dark.  A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is plowing its way across the mountains of West Virginia and appears to have enough steam left over – thanks to an upper level shortwave trough – to fire off storms east of the Blue Ridge.  Hence a need to keep an eye on the sky and on local radars to avoid the surprise that Fredericksburg received last evening when a storm blew through and disrupted a downtown concert.  If this pans out and if I have the chance I will be out chasing this afternoon even tho’ I didn’t expect today to provide the storm potential.

UPDATE 4:15 pm:  Bottom line is that the storms fizzled out. Oh well.

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