The upcoming coastal low pressure originally appeared to have a chance of tracking west of Virginia, which would have situated the Old Dominion firmly in the warm sector (or in the right front quadrant of a tropical system) and providing impetus for some convection. Per the above forecast graphic it now seems that next week’s event will be strictly rain – and lots of it – from an autumn nor’easter.
I still won’t declare an end to the Virginia chase season until my empirically derived Veterans’ Day cutoff, but the potential for another 2011 chase is dwindling.