I’m definitely not holding my breath but the next system rolling across the country is taking a decidedly negative tilt resulting in some impressive shear across the Old Dominion Thursday. The 0Z NAM is showing the following values for 0-1 km helicities at 21Z (5 p.m.) Thursday:
Unfortunately the surface-based CAPE under these helicities is only forecast to reach a maximum of 750 j/kg in the southern portions of Virginia…thus I’m not allowing myself to get revved up yet. Need to see another couple model runs, especially tomorrow morning’s HRRR/RAP output.
Still, tomorrow afternoon I may need to have my chase hat on.