This is the surface-based CAPE depiction for next Wednesday afternoon from last night’s 6Z GFS run. The GFS has been trending this direction with similar – but with less CAPE – results for Tuesday through Friday afternoons next week over the Mid-Atlantic. Now that’s still several days out so a lot of this must be taken with a grain of salt, but with the passage of a weak shortwave trough Tuesday and then the approach of a longwave trough on Friday the odds are that storms will fire next week somewhere within my chasing reach.
At the moment next Friday’s chances for severity appear the best but Tuesday could also offer an opportunity even if it means heading toward the I-64 corridor. Wednesday and Thursday may provide airmass thunderstorm potential. Will all this transpire as expected? Will the proper ingredients phase so that chasing is feasible?
Is it time to get a little pumped at the thought of opening the 2013 storm chase season?!!