A small bit of lift provided by a small vort center crossing Virginia Monday could (and I emphasize “could”) combine with surface-based CAPEs near 500 and marginal helicities to provide a slim chase possibility Monday afternoon in southern sections of Virginia.  I don’t know yet whether this will be worth heading out to preposition for a chase or whether this just warrants watching radar from home and zooming out to take a quick peek at things but at least there is a chance of thunder.
Better chances next week occur Thursday when a front sweeps through.  This system looks like it will generate a squall line that will sweep across the state but breaks in that line could yield some interesting possibilities east of the mountains.  I will be keeping an eye on that setup as it comes within range of the medium and short range models since I think that may well be my first Virginia storm chase of the 2013 season.

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