At a time of year when chasers anticipate fast-moving weather systems and very dynamic conditions we are faced with a highly blocked pattern in which nothing is moving very fast. While the upper Midwest deals with a May snowstorm(!!!) the East Coast is still dealing with a high pressure center parked just offshore which will be followed by a very slowly moving upper level low that will form and cut off from the main flow over the next 24 hours. The only potential good news for Virginia chasing is that the GFS (and recently the Euro) has been consistent in bringing this system across North Carolina and southeastern Virginia early next week.
The upshot is that the east side of this low may well provide some decent storms as shown in this Tuesday (5/7) afternoon lifted index and dew point GFS forecast graphic:
(The whitish shade represents >60 degree dew points.) A warm front – or its equivalent – along the VA/NC border could provide conditions needed for some strong storms to fire. This is about the only setup over the next week that looks worth chasing here in the Old Dominion given this really stupid early May pattern. I’ll be monitoring the track of this low carefully over the weekend for a potential chase(s) early next week.