With the absence of shear the main thing to watch is CAPE (instability) this time of year.  Even so the situation yields itself to popup storms that tend to form and rain out within 30-45 minutes, rendering storm chasing a euphemism for “Whack-a-Mole”.  Positioning oneself somewhere to await convective initiation is pretty much futile when storms are going up all over the place…besides the fact that waiting by the side of the road on days with temperatures near 90 degrees and dewpoints over 70 is unpleasant at best. 

Nevertheless the chasing instinct gnaws at me enough that I keep one eye on the radar during such afternoons – such as today – in the hopes that a worthy cell will go up near enough for me to reach before it croaks.  That is the case today and likely most of this week.  None of the three major models (GFS, NAM, and Euro) are optimistic about good chasing conditions for the next several days but the NAM at least shows a modicum of interest in Wednesday evening east of the mountains:

A stronger trough and cold front is forecast to push across the Mid-Atlantic this weekend so we’ll see what that may bring.  Meanwhile it’s watch radar and hope…

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