The 0Z NAM is pessimistic about strong storm potential Saturday but the 0Z GFS is more bullish.  Here’s the CAPE (instability) forecast graphic for 21Z Saturday:

The helicity – and thus shear – values are also a bit stronger on the GFS solution which is likely why NWS Blacksburg has the mention of strong to severe storms in their forecast discussion for tomorrow afternoon and evening.  I think I may have a chance tomorrow!

Advertisements