After an abnormally wet spring and summer September flipped a switch and decided to be abnormally dry, which is never a good situation for chasing storms. However a peek ahead at both the GFS and Euro models shows that a cold front could trigger some action here in Virginia next Monday, Oct. 7th. Said front has been slowing down on successive model runs and now looks to be in position with plenty of tropical moisture (courtesy of a disturbance now in the Caribbean) Monday afternoon. Here is the 500 mb vorticity GFS graphic for 0Z Tuesday:
There are still lots of ifs with this setup including whether there will be enough instability and daylight to make for a productive outing. But at least there’s hope of another chase on the horizon, which is encouraging considering that my empirically-derived Veteran’s Day (11/11) end of the Virginia storm chase season is fast approaching.