This morning’s 12Z GFS run shows a continued trend for a potential Virginia chase setup Saturday afternoon. This run has bumped SBCAPE to >1000 j/kg and bulk shear well over 40 knots. All that gives rise to this supercell composite parameter map at 18Z Saturday:

With dewpoints over 60 F east of the Blue Ridge mountains we might just have the first decent chase setup of spring 2014!!

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