Things started out well this morning when the SPC issued a Slight Risk for my target area, but when I combed through the models I didn’t see anything to justify that designation either at the surface or upper air. Sure enough the midday update dropped the Slight Risk and went to a “See Text”. I wasn’t concerned since I have had luck with these low end setups previously…but such was not to be.

After waiting and watching multiple runs of the HRRR and RAP models I decided to head east to Burnt Chimney in Franklin county. This HRRR forecast graphic for 7 p.m. illustrated what I thought I could intercept before dark:

The line segment straddling the NC/VA line showed in several successive runs so I felt confident that I could see something.
Unfortunately a major mitigating factor was the persistent overcast which pretty much squashed the forecast CAPE values. Thus the line tried to form as shown in this Burnt Chimney (BC) view:
But nothing much became of this other than some very light sprinkles northeast of BC after I’d already called it a BUST and headed home. Oh well…at least I didn’t stray very far from home base for this one.
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