Things started out well this morning when the SPC issued a Slight Risk for my target area, but when I combed through the models I didn’t see anything to justify that designation either at the surface or upper air. Sure enough the midday update dropped the Slight Risk and went to a “See Text”. I wasn’t concerned since I have had luck with these low end setups previously…but such was not to be.
After waiting and watching multiple runs of the HRRR and RAP models I decided to head east to Burnt Chimney in Franklin county. This HRRR forecast graphic for 7 p.m. illustrated what I thought I could intercept before dark: