April 15th is notorious as Tax Day but could it also be a chase day in 2014? I haven’t been impressed with the model solutions for my chase region altho’ the SPC is calling for a 5% chance of severe storms over the far western Piedmont of Virginia:

I’m concerned that the heavy rainfall forecast ahead of the approaching cold front will squelch convection, impair visibility, and prevent discrete storms west of the I-85 corridor. And since I’m not willing to go to that far east (too far, too populated, too many trees, etc.) without a REALLY good setup this isn’t tempting me much.
Of course if tomorrow’s RAP and HRRR runs look good all bets are off…
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