I’ve been (somewhat) patiently waiting for this morning’s 12Z runs to become available and have just now finished reviewing both the NAM and GFS results. Yep, it’s a go for tomorrow. To save time and space I’ll just post an overall graphic – the Supercell Composite Parameter – here for 21Z Friday:
This is from the 12Z NAM which is actually slightly less bullish than the GFS. All the appropriate convective parameters (CAPE, helicities, dew points, bulk shear) point to a decent chance for severe storms with rotation tomorrow afternoon in Southside Virginia. Currently the SPC Day 2 isn’t very optimistic but I’d be willing to bet the 1730Z update (due in 15 minutes) will change a bit.
Meanwhile it’s time to ready the chase gear!!