The storm system bringing seriously severe weather to points west of Virginia this weekend will have enough punch left to create a couple of chase opportunities in and around the Old Dominion this week. The mitigating factor for most of the state will be yet another April cold air damming wedge that will force most of the instability to stay south. Thus I’m faced with the possibility of chasing in northern North Carolina Tuesday.

Given the current model solutions I am looking at an initial target of Yanceyville Tuesday afternoon, with the goal of using U.S. Rte 158 as the southernmost extent of our chase territory. This of course is pending Monday model results and the actual position of the warm front Tuesday morning before I head out. The better conditions will be on Wednesday but sometimes – as Kevin Myatt likes to point out – the day before the best setup provides a decent chase.

As for Wednesday storms look to move further north into Virginia. Here’s the NAM supercell composite for 2 pm:

I’m thinking this is too optimistic on how far north the warm front will lift but the GFS has this parameter even stronger across the same area. Not exactly sure where my initial target will be Wednesday until I see at least tomorrow’s runs and probably Tuesday’s results as well. 
Regardless I’ll be out there both days trolling for mesos.