Yesterday and last evening Kentucky and West Virginia were belted by discrete severe storms with potential tornadoes. Here in Virginia the best activity happened after dark so chasing wasn’t on the menu (altho’ I did mosey to the local park in late afternoon to spy anything interesting…there wasn’t.)

The past few runs of the GFS have been teasing another potential Virginia chase day this coming Tuesday (10/14). This morning’s 12Z run provided this MUCAPE and bulk shear outlook:

CAPE values are generally <500 but shear values are off the charts as yet another long wave trough digs through the region. IF anything discrete can go up Tuesday this could be a decent chase opportunity but I'm guessing a low-topped squall line is most likely in this HSLC (high shear / low CAPE) setup.
I’m not holding my breath but I’m not ignoring the setup either. One more chase this fall?
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