Today marks the first issuance of the new “Marginal Risk” category for severe storms here in Virginia. The Storm Prediction Center instituted their new five risk level system last month. 

The low-topped convective line that blasted across northern Virginia late this afternoon seemed to verify this risk level forecast. That in turn helped verify my empirically derived end to the northern Virginia chase season as Veterans’ Day (Nov 11th), especially given next week’s pattern change. Unfortunately here in southern Virginia that bookend date hasn’t held true the past 3 chase seasons so I may have to revise it accordingly.