The northward bulge of warm air and moisture ahead of the next Arctic invasion will provide a “chaser’s tease” tomorrow, the first Sunday of 2015. The NAM is the most aggressive pertaining to the potential, painting a decent significant tornado chance over the eastern piedmont of VA & NC:
A quick look at forecast Skew T’s shows a typical high shear / low CAPE (HSLC) setup.
However a bit more sanity prevails in the SPC’s Day 2 convective outlook, which more closely matches the GFS solution:
Either way there’s little chance of my chasing given the early afternoon timing, the typical uncertainties of a HSLC situation, and family considerations. Still, the temptation is there!!