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According to the GFS model a cold front will sweep across Virginia next Thursday afternoon (3/26). Ahead of the boundary dewpoints are shown climbing into the mid-50s, creating the potential for some decent CAPE as shown in this graphic:

gfsSE_con_sbcape_159

The upper levels don’t show a lot of support for vertical velocity (i.e. updrafts). However a quick peak at bulk shear shows 40 knots over the Piedmont so this appears to be a typical early spring high shear / low CAPE (HSLC) setup.

So I’m thinking there might be chaseable storms on Thursday. I haven’t replaced batteries, prepped chase gear, or updated relevant software yet so this could provide the impetus to do so. Stay tuned…

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