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SPC Day 2 convective outlook finally shows something in Virginia: the dreaded “marginal” risk of severe weather.

day2otlk_1730

That zone along the coast corresponds to what I’ve seen on the models. It represents a thermal boundary on the eastern edge of the cold air damming wedge which is supposed to erode tomorrow & allow moisture to flow north into the Old Dominion.

The cold front itself is still due to arrive along the I-81 corridor after sunset. It’ll be a race to see any storms before dark unless the lee trough comes to the rescue and fires convection earlier.

More to follow.

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