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There may well be several chase chances this week but I’m focusing on Tuesday right now. The 4 km NAM still pumps out strong convection over the Piedmont tomorrow afternoon:

nam4km_ref_seus_11

And altho’ CAPE values aren’t great an approaching short wave will provide lift per this 700 mb vertical velocity graphic:

namSE_500_vvel_036

So there should be storms tomorrow. Also bulk shear values 30-35 knots are on the borderline for supercells. Throw in 60+ surface dewpoints and I’m planning to be in position to chase by early tomorrow afternoon.

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