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Monday (4/20) is looking good for a chase. An upper trough will approach from the west dragging upper level vorticity lobes across the Old Dominion during peak heating with a surface front due to cross the Blue Ridge near dark. Both GFS and NAM 12Z runs from today show 30-40 knots bulk shear and >1500 SBCAPE for Monday afternoon.

And then there’s this slice of the Supercell Composite Parameter forecast graphic for 21Z Monday:

SCP Mon 21Z from GFS

SCP values in the 3-4 range are pretty decent for Virginia. Dewpoints are also forecast to be in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees, so moisture won’t be a limitation. Even the text in the SPC 4-8 outlook hints at some severe storms.

Looking forward to another April outing, perhaps with better results than the last one!

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