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So…I originally decided I wasn’t going out to chase today even tho’ the SPC has much of the Piedmont of Virginia under a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Rapid storm motions, low dewpoints, and not much CAPE all tell me that I shouldn’t bother.

18Z MUCAPE and shear

18Z MUCAPE and bulk shear

But I am. That is, I’m heading down the driveway today to station the chasemobile somewhere relatively close by and await convection that an approaching cold front should fire. Hail and strong winds are the expected products with cold air aloft and very strong shear values. Lightning will probably be scarce since cloud depths will be relatively shallow.

Mind you, this won’t be a classic chase in which I try to establish and maintain position on a storm as it moves. This will be more like a “static core punch” in which I park in one spot and try not to get whiplash as I watch storms scream by my position.

Expectations aren’t very high, but I’ve been surprised by marginal setups before.

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