It’s beginning to look like I’ve got one more shot at Virginia chasing Monday and perhaps Tuesday before I head west on the first 2015 Hokie Stormchase trip. However a lot depends on what SubTropical Storm Ana does this weekend.

The upper air winds are anemic Monday but low level moisture should be abundant and CAPE seems plentiful. Monday could thus be a chase of slow moving HP cells unless Ana’s track shifts significantly. A shift far enough west could provide some low level vorticity in southern Virginia while a shift east toward the Outer Banks might just suppress convection here due to subsidence.

Meanwhile Tuesday looks more promising. The timing of an approaching cold front is key and the GFS has it pushing across Virginia by early afternoon. An upper level trough is associated with the surface front and will bring stronger winds and thus more wind shear. We’ll have to wait and see what the models do with the timing of the cold front.

Now it’s time to start looking over forecasts for the Plains…