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So far tomorrow – Monday – looks like a marginal chase day. Decent CAPE but little shear leads to the GFS showing this EHI graphic for 8 pm EDT (0Z):

0Z Tues EHINot a great setup over the southern sections of the Piedmont but enough to entice me to head out. (Who knows what outflow boundaries and/or locally generated low-level shear might produce?)

Meanwhile Tuesday’s FROPA appears to be too early in the day for me to take advantage of. Per the models the main action will be east of the I-85 corridor starting early afternoon. That’s too far east for my taste under less-than-ballistic circumstances.

Saturday may hold some potential as models show a backdoor front dropping south over Virginia. However family stuff and chase preps for the first Virginia Tech Hokie Stormchase trip will likely take precedence that day. Thus tomorrow may be the last Virginia chase for a while.

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