Not much time available for a detailed post so here’s the SPC Day 1 convective outlook text apropos to Virginia:

“THE REMNANT GUST FRONT/COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS WILL REACH THE VA PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER A NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL FOSTER AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500+ J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING LINE CONVECTIVE MODES POSSIBLE.”

And here’s the tornado probability graphic as of 13Z:

SPC tornado probs

Chasing today? You betcha!!

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