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Much of the Old Dominion is under an SPC-issued Slight Risk for severe storms today. It appears the main trigger mechanism would be the lee trough over the Piedmont. That, coupled with so-so moisture and CAPE plus 35-40 knots of deep layer shear could mean marginal supercellular storm structure this afternoon.

However…I’m a bit concerned about this:


Smoke from Canadian wildfires is being drawn south and east by the upper level trough. If that layer streams overhead Virginia today it could (a) cut down on insolation and thus reduce CAPE and/or (b) absorb sunshine and warm the mid-levels, thus capping the vertical column.

Thus I’m not totally sold on the Slight Risk for today. I will likely chase this afternoon but I may hedge my bets by watching radar and waiting until I’m convinced convection will occur.