Busted. Yep, that’s what I get for “wishcasting”. Both the NAM and the RAP showed a decently vigorous upper air disturbance traveling across Southside Virginia today and I bit on it. (I mostly ignored the HRRR as it hasn’t done well lately on timing or distribution of convection.)
I motored south to the Martinsville vicinity where satellite showed a few peeks of sunshine through the overcast. SBCAPE values were 1000-1500 and the low level shear was 20+ knots so I figured any cell that went up had a chance at low level rotation during its first hour of life. I arrived ahead of anticipated convective initiation and spent time in a few different places observing the sky and checking radar, satellite, and surface conditions. I finally pushed north of Chatham for one last stop. Nada.
So I headed home without even snapping one photo. It was truly a bust!