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So far my schedule has not cooperated with the weather – or vice-versa – this month. When I have had time to chase there’s been nothing worthwhile to go after and when other activities took precedence I’ve had to longingly gaze at the radar. Hopefully the next several days will break that cycle.

Today, however, I’m not holding my breath. A vigorous short wave is sweeping across northern Virginia and will push a stalled cold front well south of my standard chase area. There are indications on several models that this afternoon will bring surface convergence over the Piedmont but very dry air advecting into the area will suppress most if not all convection.

MidAtlantic wv image 1245Z

The best convective setup today is over southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina, not part of my all time desirable chasing locations. SPC has this area under a Slight risk for severe storms.

The next period that holds promise of chaseable storms is early next week as a long wave trough asserts itself over the Eastern U.S. Short waves rolling NW to SE along the trough edge will bring chances of storms Monday and Tuesday with the latter looking like the more promising day. Of course that pattern could also bring early morning MCS’s that may mess up the convection situation depending on timing.

Patience, grasshopper…