At the moment late August chasing probabilities aren’t looking so hot. The SPC Day 2 convective outlook is about as good as it gets for several days:

day2otlk_0600There are chances of scattered storms today thru Thursday over the Old Dominion but nothing looks promising. Weak upper level winds = weak shear, and instability (CAPE) will be wimpy due to mainly overcast skies.

Looking at the outer ranges of the GFS I don’t see any longwave (or even vigorous shortwave) troughs digging close enough to Virginia to change anything. Unless the tropics produce something that impacts our region the “chaseability quotient” for the remainder of August is pretty low.

Of course that doesn’t preclude me from watching radar and jumping on anything that looks decent! It just means that I can’t definitively point to any given day and say “That’s a chase day”.