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Severe weather potential Wednesday looks a bit better (vice Thursday) on the Sunday 12Z GFS:

MUCAPE and Shear Wed

MUCAPE and 0-6 km shear 4 pm Wednesday

With a few hundred joules/kg CAPE and 50+ kts of deep layer shear this looks like a classic high shear / low CAPE (HSLC) event. A quick look at a forecast sounding for southern VA provides a supercell composite >1 Wednesday afternoon. Dew points approaching the mid-60s, a low level jet >40 kts, and an upper level disturbance moving north from the Gulf states provide additional hope of some activity.

Of course skies will be overcast and ceilings will be low. And storm motions will be out of the southwest at well over 40 kts…but what the heck. It may well be a December chase day!

 

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