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Wild swings in the jet stream can lead to convective mayhem even in winter and next week may be another case of that. The Storm Prediction Center has a rare Day 7 severe weather area outlooked across Dixie Alley on Tuesday:

day7prob

The next day – Wednesday Feb 3rd – the GFS is showing this dewpoint and lifted index forecast for the southeastern U.S. at 1 pm EST (18Z):

gfsSE_sfc_dewp_174The kink in the front across western VA is eerily reminiscent of a dry line bulge on the Great Plains, something that tends to produce severe weather.

Could there be a chase in the cards next week? Given climatology I’m not overly optimistic but it’s something to watch. Hey, I’m as susceptible to SDS (supercell deprivation syndrome) as the next chaser!

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