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Today’s GFS runs continue to show a decently robust setup that could wind up convincing me to chase next Wednesday. First, here’s the surface-based CAPE (instability) map at 1 pm that day:

SBCAPE Wed 1 pm

Even though this is an off-hour run (18Z) it is pretty consistent with earlier runs today in showing an area of 500+ SBCAPE over the Virginia Piedmont.

Then we have the Supercell Composite Parameter calculated for the same time:

SCP Wed 1 pm

The yellow shading highlights areas where SCP values are between 2 and 4, while the orange shading shows SCP values between 4 and 7. Both are pretty decent parameters for Virginia, especially in February.

I’ll continue watching the timing and other factors such as ceiling heights, shear vectors, and storm speeds. And once we get within range of some shorter term models it will be interesting to see how this setup evolves.

Stay tuned!!