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Wednesday will be a classic winter time HSLC (high shear / low CAPE) event here in Virginia. Neither the GFS nor the NAM runs this morning hold out much hope for instability while shear values are incredible. Highway speed storm motions, low ceilings and overcast skies limiting visibility, and the only forcing mechanism for convection being the cold front itself all create a lot of doubt about the wisdom of chasing this setup. The bust vs. success balance sheet is looking pretty scanty on the success side at the moment.

However…here is the 4 km NAM composite reflectivity forecast at 18Z Wednesday (courtesy of Pivotal Weather):


There are (admittedly faint) signs of discrete cells out ahead of the front which could tempt me mightily. I suppose this will involve a decision early that morning as to whether to head out or stay home and watch radar.

It may come down to a coin flip.