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I have to admit my hopes for something chaseable tomorrow (Wed. Feb 3rd) have risen after perusing the models this morning. First, here’s the SPC Day 2 outlook:

day2otlk_0700

A Marginal Risk isn’t much but I’ve witnessed decent storms under the previous “See Text” regime here in Virginia.

Then a quick check of forecast soundings near Danville VA leads to even the 06Z GFS being a bit optimistic, with a 0-1 km shear value of 40 kts(!) and a supercell composite parameter of 1.2 at 4 pm tomorrow. And then the ever optimistic 4 km NAM shows this supercell composite parameter map for 7 pm (again, courtesy of the good folks at Pivotal Weather):

4 km NAM SCP at 0Z

Overall the NAM has held the cold front passage a bit slower than the GFS solutions but the latter model has also slowed things down from previous runs. The actual timing will probably be a blend of the two model solutions.

So, yes, I’m now planning to chase tomorrow. I realize rapid storm motions and low ceilings will make intercepting storms difficult but it may prove worth the effort.

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