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An anomalously strong upper level low coming northeast out of Mexico, a short wave, and a long wave trough passage will combine to provide three potential storm chase days next week. These three graphics illustrate this via supercell composite values.

First, the upper level low with its cold pool (can we say hail?) and an attendant surface boundary creates a decent setup Monday afternoon:SCP Mon 21Z

The accompanying profile shows marginally strong enough wind shear for severe weather along with decent instability across southern Virginia.

Then comes some upper level support for convection Wednesday afternoon.

SCP Wed 21Z

Instability and shear levels look even better than Monday’s values for possible tornado concerns.

And then there’s Thursday when a cold front sweeps across the area ahead of a pattern shift back to an eastern U.S. trough:

18Z Thurs SCP

Again, decent instability and shear show up on the soundings for southern Virginia.

I’m thinking next week could be very busy. Time to change out some batteries and recharge some devices for next week!!

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