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Beyond some garden variety storms Sunday afternoon it now looks like Monday is the only day next week to expect a chase. Starting with yesterday’s 18Z model runs the timing changed on the other features (short & long wave trough passages) such that storms aren’t likely.

Meanwhile here’s today’s 12Z GFS output for 1 pm Monday showing 0-3 km EHI values:03ehima

Both the GFS and NAM show a warm front draped across Virginia Monday afternoon which provides a significant shear zone for any storms that go up. If the CAPE and shear values hold up I’d expect a Slight risk from the SPC to be issued for Monday.

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