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The next potential chase opportunity has appeared on the horizon for next Monday, March 28th. This is the dew point forecast for 18Z (2 pm EDT) that afternoon per today’s 12Z GFS:18Z on Mar 28 GFS

A surface low lurks over central North Carolina accompanied by a 500 mb closed low over the far southwestern corner of the Tarheel state. A peek at a forecast profile for Pittsylvania county shows SBCAPE values >1500 j/kg and a 0-6 km shear over 50 knots to go along with this moisture. Lift from both a cold front and afternoon heating to convective temperatures could both fire convection across southern Virginia.

Forecast timing and placement of the surface and upper level lows will undoubtedly change between now and next Monday but that date is now on the calendar!

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