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The GFS has been showing a 21Z Monday surface map similar to this for the past several runs (courtesy Pivotal Weather):

sfcma.png

It has the 500 mb trough well off the coast at this time. The model pushes the cold front across the Old Dominion by dawn Monday.

In contrast today’s 12Z Euro shows the surface front located along the U.S. Route 29 corridor at 21Z Monday accompanied by at least some instability and shear. The 500 mb trough is just beginning to cross the Appalachian mountains at that time.

Guess we’ll have to wait another 48 hours or so for more runs and to check out the NAM results (which, if you’ll remember, was spot on regarding the Feb 24th severity).

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