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So is the shift of convective hope from Thursday to Friday (4/1) real or is this an April Fools’ joke?sbcape.us_ma

The GFS has had timing issues lately but now the outer reaches of the NAM agree that Thursday’s convective activity will remain over the Midwest and Ohio valley. Assuming the above model solution is correct the surface moisture, instability, and shear all look very robust ahead of a cold front passage Friday afternoon. So the next Virginia chase opportunity has indeed shifted to Friday…and yes, that’s April Fools’ Day.

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