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Here’s this morning’s 12Z GFS solution for supercell composite parameter at 11:00 am (15Z) Friday morning (courtesy College of DuPage):SCP at 15Z Fri

Several things to note:

(1) This is before lunch Friday!

(2) The 850 mb winds (the black barbs) are screaming along at 40-50 knots while the 500 mb winds (blue barbs) are at 70+ knots.

(3) The surface cold front is still west of the I-81 corridor at this time.

(4) Dewpoints are above 60 degrees, CAPE values >1000 j/kg, and 0-6 km shear is over 60 knots.

(5) The 12Z NAM solution shows much more volatile values than the GFS for the above parameters. (And keep in mind the NAM was jumping up and down about severe potential before the Feb. 24th storms).

The Storm Prediction Center is showing this for the Day 3 convective outlook (Friday):Fri convective outlook

The models have been trending toward the current solution for the past couple of days. Unless things change radically in the next several model cycles I expect a good chunk of Virginia will be elevated to a Slight Risk in the Day 2 outlooks issued tomorrow. And an Enhanced Risk may be in order for the Day 1 outlooks.

So am I planning to chase Friday? Ask a dumb question…

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