Still watching radar and satellite this afternoon as there may some better convection approaching western VA near sunset.
Meanwhile the 12Z GFS is indicating potential for chaseable setups both next Tuesday and Thursday. Here’s the SBCAPE graphic (courtesy Pivotal Weather) for 8 pm Tuesday:
A forecast sounding at 5 pm Tuesday showed CAPE values >2500 j/kg and 0-6 km shear values nearing 40 knots hovering over much of my chase area. It looks like a backdoor front will push south across Virginia that afternoon under upper level northwest flow.
This is Thursday’s SBCAPE graphic at 8 pm (again courtesy Pivotal Weather):
CAPE and shear values at 5 pm are even higher than in Tuesday’s forecast. The trigger appears to be a short wave crossing the Old Dominion that afternoon.
So even tho’ the Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks for Tuesday and Wednesday have chasers excited about a Great Plains severe outbreak I’m fine with sticking here in Virginia next week.